Campbell Burnes on Rugby
Former Manu Samoa No 10 and freelance rugby scribe Campbell Burnes argues that the fate of the Rugby World Cup may rest on quarter-finals Nos 2 and 4.
It’s a big weekend in New Zealand from October 14-15.
On the Saturday we have the general election, followed hours later by the second of the quarter-finals, which is the winner of Pool B (likely South Africa or Ireland, sorry, Scotland fans) versus the runner-up in Pool A. If the All Blacks lose their RWC opener against France and thus drop their game ever in the RWC pool stages, that will be them. That kickoff is at 8am on Sunday October 15 NZT.
However, if they win that opener against France and thus top Pool A, the All Blacks will play the following day (8am, Monday October 16 NZT) against (likely) either Ireland or South Africa. Either way, two of the best four teams in the world will be exiting the World Cup stage left two weeks before the climax. That is a shame in the extreme.
This scribe would love a tenner for every time someone has asked me how the World Cup will go in France. I invariably reply that it all hinges on that quarter-final weekend. The winners of quarter-finals No 2 and 4 could easily go all the way to the final, where the All Blacks versus France is not beyond the realms of possibility. On the weaker side of the draw, an England or Australia or Argentina could quite conceivably reach the final without over-exerting themselves.
The All Blacks’ early form in July would suggest that they are more than capable of rising to the challenge of Ireland or South Africa, especially as the Irish have an unhealthy reliance on the fitness of Johnny Sexton, who was still, at the time of writing, making his way back from another injury.
Les Bleus of France may well justify the favourite tag. Mentally flaky and ill-disciplined too often in the past, they now look a galvanised, cohesive group under coach Fabien Galthié, with the world’s best player, Antoine Dupont, pulling the strings in expert fashion. Even if they lose to the All Blacks on September 9, they are more than capable of winning their first title, and what a boon that would be for the game in France.
They already have the best Under 20s unit on the planet, their massive young pack helping trounce Ireland in July’s world champs final. Their women are No 3 on the world rankings, but capable of moving on up. This could be the moment for France. But Les Bleus will, like the All Blacks, have to negotiate a tricky quarter-final against either Ireland or South Africa.
There are always many variables in a World Cup. Many are worried that a red card for an accidental head clash will decide matters. That, too, could easily transpire. Untimely injuries will occur.
But one of the few things we can say with certainty is that this World Cup will hinge on two quarter-finals, where two very good teams will depart the event. Then it’s all on. All Blacks fans, prepare for the highs and the lows. There will be nothing in between.
